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Where Do Technology Shocks Come From? Public Funding and Private Ownership

Author

Listed:
  • Gazzani, Andrea
  • Martinez, Joseba
  • Natoli, Filippo
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

We construct postwar U.S. patent time series by funding source and ownership. In local projections with rich macroeconomic controls, disciplined by external instruments and information-set tests, unanticipated filings serve as source-specific technology-shock proxies. Government-funded but privately owned patents are two percent of filings, yet explain about one-fifth of medium-run fluctuations in TFP and GDP. Responses propagate through private R&D and investment, with model-implied social returns to public R&D about twice those to private R&D. Effects concentrate in science-based patents supported by NIH and NSF or assigned to universities, research institutes, and start-ups. Government-owned patents have weak average effects but a consequential upper tail.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazzani, Andrea & Martinez, Joseba & Natoli, Filippo & Surico, Paolo, 2026. "Where Do Technology Shocks Come From? Public Funding and Private Ownership," CEPR Discussion Papers 21745, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21745
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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