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Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach

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  • Chacua, Christian
  • Gadgin Matha, Shreyas
  • Hartog, Matte
  • Hausmann, Ricardo
  • Yildirim, Muhammed

Abstract

Technological know-how in a country shapes its growth potential and competitiveness. Scientific publications, patents, and international trade data offer complementary insights into how ideas from science, technology, and production evolve, combine, and are transformed into capabilities. Analyzing their trajectories enables a more comprehensive and multifaceted understanding of the whole innovation process, from generating ideas to internationally commercializing products. We analyze the production patterns in these three domains, documenting the differences between advanced and emerging market economies. We find that future income, patenting, and publishing growth correlate with the economic complexity indices calculated from these domains. Capabilities embedded in the country also shape future diversification opportunities and make the innovation process path dependent. Lastly, we also show that diversification opportunities can be inferred across innovation domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Chacua, Christian & Gadgin Matha, Shreyas & Hartog, Matte & Hausmann, Ricardo & Yildirim, Muhammed, 2025. "Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 20679, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20679
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP20679
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nutarelli, Federico & Edet, Samuel & Gnecco, Giorgio & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2025. "Predicting the technological complexity of global cities based on unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Federico Moscatelli & Julio Raffo & Alessio Muscarnera & Shreyas Gadgin Matha & Christian Chacua & Matté Hartog & Eduardo Hernández-Rodríguez & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2026. "The Technological Potential of Innovation Ecosystems: An Inter-Dimensional Network Approach," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 90, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    4. Clement Brenot & Jesus Daboin Pacheco & Ricardo Hausmann & Shreyas Gadgin Matha, 2023. "Scientific and Technical Innovation in the UAE: A Capability-based Approach," Growth Lab Working Papers 258, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    5. Sheresheva, M.Y., 2025. "The Elaboration of the Patent Processing Instrument Based on Machine Learning Technology," GATR Journals jber267, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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