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Micro and Macro Perspectives on Production-Based Markups

Author

Listed:
  • Fernald, John
  • Gandhi, Amit
  • Ruzic, Dimitrije
  • Traina, James

Abstract

We review the "production approach" to estimating markups — the ratio of price to marginal cost. Paired with increasingly rich microdata and advances in production-function estimation, the method enables scalable analysis of markups across firms, industries, and time. We survey what economists need to know about the production approach, emphasizing both its promise and its fragility. Conceptually, empirically, and econometrically, the production-based markup is a residual — absorbing model misspecification, data limitations, and unobserved frictions. These challenges help explain why empirical results often diverge, including on whether markups have risen sharply in recent decades. We outline practical guidance for researchers and highlight directions for future work: improving transparency in reporting, validating production-based markups against demand-based and quasi-experimental estimates, and integrating firm-level heterogeneity into macroeconomic models. The production approach is not a finished product, but it remains a uniquely powerful tool for studying market power and its implications for productivity, welfare, and macroeconomic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernald, John & Gandhi, Amit & Ruzic, Dimitrije & Traina, James, 2025. "Micro and Macro Perspectives on Production-Based Markups," CEPR Discussion Papers 20628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20628
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP20628
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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