Inflation Forecast Targeting Revisited

Under inflation forecast targeting, central banks such as the ECB adjust policy to keep expected inflation on target. We evaluate the ECB’s inflation forecasts: they are unbiased and efficient but contain little information at forecast horizons beyond three quarters. In a New Keynesian model with transmission lags, inflation forecast targeting is indeed effective in stabilizing inflation—provided there is no forward-looking behavior—though the information content of forecasts is unrealistically high. In the presence of forward-looking behavior, the information content declines because monetary policy becomes more effective in meeting the target, but inflation is best stabilized by targeting current inflation.