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The Other First Wave: Elite Conflict and Democratization in Agrarian Autocracies

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  • Hartnett, Allison
  • Saleh, Mohamed

Abstract

Social conflict theory holds that first wave industrializing autocracies democratized when an incumbent rural elite was challenged by an urban bourgeoisie. We argue that a capitalist rural middle class (RMC) in agrarian autocracies could also push for partial democratization to level the economic field with the incumbent elite, when power shifts in the RMC's favor. We test this argument in precolonial Egypt from 1866 to 1882, using the universe of speeches of members of parliament (MPs). We find that after Egypt's 1876 default that arguably weakened the landed elite, MP pro-democratic reform speeches increased substantially. This increase was greater among RMC MPs from cotton-producing constituencies, due to the higher elite conflict over labor in these areas. After 1876, these MPs also pushed for capitalist reforms to mitigate landed elite expropriation. Our study challenges the notion that agrarian economies were predisposed to autocracy in the first wave of democratization.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartnett, Allison & Saleh, Mohamed, 2025. "The Other First Wave: Elite Conflict and Democratization in Agrarian Autocracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 20260, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20260
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    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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