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The Long-Run Effects of Popular Uprisings: Evidence from the German Peasants’ War

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  • Wahl, Fabian

Abstract

The German Peasants’ War, the largest popular uprising in Europe before the French Revolution, has been widely studied by historians, but its long-term regional effects remain unexplored quantitatively. This paper offers the first systematic analysis by examining urban development in conflict-affected areas using data on economic construction from 1225 to 1825 drawn from the Deutsches Städtebuch. Using differencein- differences and event study methods, I find a significant and lasting decline in construction activity in the conflict zone—driven by the southern region, with no significant effect in the north. Placebo tests using alternative war geographies confirm the robustness of the results. These findings underscore the persistent negative effects of civil conflict on regional economic development. I provide suggestive evidence that this decline was linked to reduced presence of upper-tail human capital and political elites, pointing to disrupted local political and educational infrastructure as a mechanism behind the long-run urban stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Wahl, Fabian, 2025. "The Long-Run Effects of Popular Uprisings: Evidence from the German Peasants’ War," CEPR Discussion Papers 20231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20231
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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