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Network Rewiring and Spatial Targeting: Optimal Disease Mitigation in Multilayer Social Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Candogan, Ozan
  • Koenig, Michael
  • Marray, Kieran
  • Takes, Frank

Abstract

We study disease spread on a social network where individuals adjust contacts to avoid infection. Susceptible individuals rewire links from infectious individuals to other susceptibles, reducing infections and causing the disease to only become endemic at higher infection rates. We formulate the planner’s problem of implementing targeted lockdowns to control endemic disease as a semidefinite program that is computationally tractable even with many groups. Rewiring complements policy by allowing more intergroup contact as the rewiring rate increases. We apply our model to compute optimal spatially targeted lockdowns for the Netherlands during Covid-19 using a population-level contact network for 17.26 million individuals. Our findings indicate that, with rewiring, a targeted lockdown policy permits 12% more contacts compared to one without rewiring, underscoring the significance of accounting for network endogeneity in effective policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Candogan, Ozan & Koenig, Michael & Marray, Kieran & Takes, Frank, 2025. "Network Rewiring and Spatial Targeting: Optimal Disease Mitigation in Multilayer Social Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 19892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19892
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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