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Identifying Non-Gaussian Structural Shocks

Author

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  • Andrade, Philippe
  • Ferroni, Filippo
  • Melosi, Leonardo

Abstract

We develop a robust and tractable method to identify SVARs using non-Gaussian features of structural shocks. The approach combines inequality restrictions on higher-order moments with standard set-identifying constraints such as sign restrictions. To benchmark its performance, we apply it to the identification of monetary policy shocks. Combining standard minimal sign restrictions with a constraint that monetary policy shocks be leptokurtic, we recover several key properties documented in earlier work: a correct output response to policy tightening, salient policy narrative episodes, and a plausible central bank reaction function. We then identify sovereign and geopolitical risk shocks, assuming they are skewed and leptokurtic, and uncover sizable macroeconomic effects that remain hidden under conventional identification schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo & Melosi, Leonardo, 2024. "Identifying Non-Gaussian Structural Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 19813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19813
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19813
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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