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Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns

Author

Listed:
  • Carnehl, Christoph
  • Fukuda, Satoshi
  • Kos, Nenad

Abstract

We study a behavioral SIR model with time-varying costs of distancing. We explore the consequences of distancing fatigue and public policies. For a second wave of an epidemic to arise, a steep increase in distancing cost is necessary. Distancing fatigue alone cannot trigger a second wave. However, public policies that discontinuously affect distancing cost can. We characterize the largest change in the distancing cost that will not cause a second wave. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis of public policies under distancing fatigue and show that an early strict lockdown can lead to unintended adverse consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2024. "Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns," CEPR Discussion Papers 19632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19632
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19632
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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