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Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows

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  • Bengui, Julien
  • Coulibaly, Louphou

Abstract

Are unregulated capital flows excessive during a stagflation episode? We argue that they likely are, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy's supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages through a wealth effect on labor supply and cause unwelcome upward pressure on marginal costs in countries where monetary policy is trying to drive down costs to stabilize inflation. Yet, market forces are likely to generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows, suggesting topsy-turvy capital flows following markup shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bengui, Julien & Coulibaly, Louphou, 2022. "Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 17661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17661
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cho, Daeha & Kim, Kwang Hwan & Kim, Suk Joon, 2023. "Inefficient international risk-sharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-49.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stabilization policies; Capital flow management; Current account adjustment; Stagflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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