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Managing Monetary Tradeoffs in Vulnerable Open Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Erceg, Christopher J.
  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Lindé, Jesper
  • Zabczyk, Pawel

Abstract

We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve monetary policy tradeoffs under some conditions, including by reducing the need for procyclical tightening in response to capital outflow pressures. Moreover, they can be used in a preemptive way to reduce the risk of a "sudden stop" through curbing a buildup in leverage. While these tools can materially improve welfare, mainly by dampening inefficient fluctuations in risk premia, our analysis also highlights potential limitations, including the possibility that their deployment may forestall needed adjustment in the external balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian, Tobias & Erceg, Christopher J. & Kolasa, Marcin & Lindé, Jesper & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2022. "Managing Monetary Tradeoffs in Vulnerable Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 16972, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16972
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Fx intervention; Capital controls; Sudden stops; Dsge model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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