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Les réformes des retraites de 1993 et 2003 vont-elles conduire à un allongement des carrières professionnelles ?

Author

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  • Bozio, Antoine

Abstract

Ce papier vise à estimer l'effet des hausses de la durée requise de cotisation des réformes 1993 et 2003 des retraites sur l'allongement de la durée des carrières en France. L'utilisation des données administratives et exhaustives de la CNAV (1994-2003) nous permet de rendre compte empiriquement de l'élasticité de l'âge de liquidation de la retraite à la durée requise de cotisation, lors de la réforme de 1993. Nous utilisons l'application variable de la réforme selon la génération et la durée d'assurance pour identifier précisément celle-ci par une méthode en double différence. Nos résultats laissent à penser qu'un trimestre supplémentaire dans la durée de cotisation nécessaire pour obtenir le taux plein s'est traduit par une augmentation de moins de 1,5 mois de l'âge à la liquidation, correspondant à une élasticité estimée de 0,54. D'après nos estimations, l'impact de long terme des réformes de 1993 et de 2003 sur l'offre de travail devrait conduire à une augmentation du PIB entre 2 et 3 % à l'horizon 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozio, Antoine, 2006. "Les réformes des retraites de 1993 et 2003 vont-elles conduire à un allongement des carrières professionnelles ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 0605, CEPREMAP.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpm:docweb:0605
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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/docweb/docweb0605.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    réforme des retraites; élasticité de l’offre de travail; durée de cotisation;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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