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Price Adjustment in a Posted-Price Wholesale Market: California Beer and the 2025 Aluminum Tariffs

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew T. Cole

    (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University)

  • Michael P. McCullough

    (Agribusiness Department, California Polytechnic State University)

  • Nathan H. Miller

    (Georgetown University and NBER)

Abstract

We study business-to-business price adjustment around the 2025 U.S. aluminum tariffs, using California wholesale beer filings that date each price change. Posted prices rise commensurate with the increase in the cost of aluminum cans. Adjustment is delayed, selective, and bundled: new filings surge four months after implementation without raising prices, and the increases arrive at six and seven months, in filings that reset long-unrevised prices and span more of the product line. Surges recur in other years, at other dates, without the selection or bundling. Frictions that contribute to price rigidity between firms operate even around salient, dated cost events.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew T. Cole & Michael P. McCullough & Nathan H. Miller, 2026. "Price Adjustment in a Posted-Price Wholesale Market: California Beer and the 2025 Aluminum Tariffs," Working Papers 2602, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2602
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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