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Evaluación de los modelos de pronóstico aplicados para la demanda turística internacional hacia Colombia

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  • Dennys MarrugoTorrente

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Abstract

En la actualidad, existen factores de orden financiero, cultural, social y medioambiental susceptibles de ser utilizados para explicar los flujos turísticos internacionales desde y hacia un país. (Coshall, 2000: 218). No obstante, se analizan algunos factores económicos que pueden afectar los viajes o estancias de las personas.A partir de 1970 hasta 1977, el sector turístico colombiano dependía en un 50% en promedio del turismo procedente de Estados Unidos y de Canadá. Entre 1978 y 1991, este turismo representó solamente en promedio el 32%, es decir que había disminuido en 18 puntos porcentuales, para dar cabida al turismo europeo (Italia, España, Alemania y Francia) y de otros países de América Latina. En un lapso de 21 años el turismo internacional hacia Colombia pasó de 117 mil visitantes a 598 mil. El crecimiento de este turismo fue constante desde 1971 hasta el año de 1977. ****** At the present time, factors of financial, cultural, social and environmental order exists susceptible to be used to explain the international tourist flows from and towards a country. (Coshall, 2000: 218). Despite, in this article some economic factors are analyzed that can affect the trips or stays of the people. As of 1970 until 1977, the Colombian tourist sector depended in a 50% in average of the tourism coming from the United States and Canada. Between 1978 and 1991, this tourism only represented in average 32%, is to say that it had diminished in 18 percentage points, to give capacity to the European tourism (Italy, Spain, Germany and France) and of other countries of Latin America. In a lapse of 21 years the international tourism towards Colombia happened more or less of 117 thousand visitors to 598 thousands. The growth of this tourism was constant from 1971 to the year of 1977.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennys MarrugoTorrente, 2007. "Evaluación de los modelos de pronóstico aplicados para la demanda turística internacional hacia Colombia," REVISTA PANORAMA ECONÓMICO 006206, UNIVERSIDAD DE CARTAGENA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000407:006206
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    File URL: http://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Piore, Michael J, 1983. "Labor Market Segmentation: To What Paradigm Does It Belong?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 249-253, May.
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    Keywords

    Turismo; Demanda; Tourism; Demand.;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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