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Cotizaciones en el sistema general de pensiones colombiano: aproximación con un modelo de respuesta binaria

Author

Listed:
  • Wilman Carpeta
  • Jonathan Peña

Abstract

En un país como Colombia el problema de cotización en el Sistema General de Pensiones es bastante complejo si se considera que la relación entre la cantidad de personas que cotizan respecto a la población económicamente activa es muy baja, y en particular cuando se encuentran las estimaciones del Ministerio de Trabajo indicando que el 90 % de los ocupados del país no logrará pensionarse, cifra bastante alarmante. De ahí la insistencia de reconocer los determinantes sobre la probabilidad de cotizar en el sistema de pensiones colombiano y a partir esto inferir sobre aquellos que resultan importantes y descartar los que no lo son, a través del diseno de un modelo Probit. Además este documento muestra la importancia de reformar el sistema y buscar alternativas de protección para la vejez.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilman Carpeta & Jonathan Peña, 2015. "Cotizaciones en el sistema general de pensiones colombiano: aproximación con un modelo de respuesta binaria," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía 13821, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000176:013821
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    File URL: http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/docs/econografos-escuela-economia/82-cotizaciones-en-el-sistema-general-de-pensiones-colombiano-aproximacion-con-un-modelo-de-respuesta-binaria
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sistema General de Pensiones; Cotizaciones de pensiones; Modelos Probit; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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