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Long-run economic growth: modeling exercise for emerging markets

Author

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  • Daniel Toro Gonzalez

Abstract

This document is intended to show some results about the predictions over the long run economic growth of some emerging markets. Following Lucas (2009) we successfully replicate the estimation about Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong, and we also use the model to predict the per capita GDP in some Latin American countries like Chile, Colombia and Mexico taking United States as the leading economy. We show that there are significantdifferences in the catch up process between the Asian economies and the Latin American Economies. In Latin America, the convergence process will take more than twice the time needed by the Asian economies to catch up the most advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Toro Gonzalez, 2009. "Long-run economic growth: modeling exercise for emerging markets," Documentos de Trabajo 5573, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000162:005573
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dual economy; agriculture employment; per capita GDP; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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