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Long-run economic growth: modeling exercise for emerging markets


  • Daniel Toro Gonzalez



This document is intended to show some results about the predictions over the long run economic growth of some emerging markets. Following Lucas (2009) we successfully replicate the estimation about Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong, and we also use the model to predict the per capita GDP in some Latin American countries like Chile, Colombia and Mexico taking United States as the leading economy. We show that there are significantdifferences in the catch up process between the Asian economies and the Latin American Economies. In Latin America, the convergence process will take more than twice the time needed by the Asian economies to catch up the most advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Toro Gonzalez, 2009. "Long-run economic growth: modeling exercise for emerging markets," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005573, UNIVERSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA DE BOLÍVAR.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000162:005573

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Irma Chaparro, 2002. "Evaluación del impacto socio económico del transporte urbano en la ciudad de Bogotá. El caso del sistema de transporte masivo, Transmilenio," DOCUMENTOS DE INVESTIGACION 002640, CEPAL NACIONES UNIDAS.
    2. Alpizar, Francisco & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2003. "Policy implications and analysis of the determinants of travel mode choice: an application of choice experiments to metropolitan Costa Rica," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 603-619, October.
    3. Candelaria Barrios Gonzalez & M? Angeles Martinez Navarro, 1998. "The demand for urban transport: An application of discrete choice model for Cadiz," ERSA conference papers ersa98p157, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Chaparro, Irma, 2002. "Evaluación del impacto socioeconómico del transporte urbano en la ciudad de Bogotá: el caso del sistema de transporte masivo Transmilenio," Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura 48, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    More about this item


    Dual economy; agriculture employment; per capita GDP; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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