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¿Qué tan desalineados están los precios de la vivienda en Colombia?

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Steiner

    ()

  • Natalia Salazar Ferro

    ()

  • Alejandro Becerra

    ()

  • Jaime Ramírez

    ()

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza el comportamiento reciente de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia y busca dar luces sobre si hay los precios están desalineados frente a los fundamentales que los determinan. Para ello se utilizaron dos aproximaciones. La primera utiliza un modelo VAR estructural para hacer pronósticos dentro de muestra. Los resultados sugieren que los precios actualmente observados no están desalineados si dentro de los determinantes fundamentales de los mismos seincluye el precio del suelo. Para la segunda aproximación se construyó un modelo estructural de oferta y demanda de vivienda. Los resultados de este modelo son coherentes con los del modelo VAR y sugieren que cualquier des-alineamiento del precio de la vivienda respecto de sus "fundamentales" se asocia con niveles históricamente altos del precio del suelo.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Steiner & Natalia Salazar Ferro & Alejandro Becerra & Jaime Ramírez, 2012. "¿Qué tan desalineados están los precios de la vivienda en Colombia?," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 010716, FEDESARROLLO.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:010716
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/220
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    Cited by:

    1. Ríos Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Olaya Morales, Yris, 2016. "Sostenibilidad del consumo doméstico de materiales de construcción en Colombia, 1990-2013," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, issue 86, pages 127-151, December.
    2. Juan Pablo Ríos Ocampo & Yris Olaya Morales, 2017. "Sustainability of the domestic consumption of construction materials in Colombia, 1990-2013," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 127-151, Enero - J.
    3. Carmen Silva & Camilo Vio, 2015. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: evidence from Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 4-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Construcción; Vivienda; Precios de la vivienda; oferta y demanda de vivienda; Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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