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¿Qué tan desalineados están los precios de la vivienda en Colombia?

  • Roberto Steiner

    ()

  • Natalia Salazar Ferro

    ()

  • Alejandro Becerra

    ()

  • Jaime Ramírez

    ()

Este trabajo analiza el comportamiento reciente de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia y busca dar luces sobre si hay los precios están desalineados frente a los fundamentales que los determinan. Para ello se utilizaron dos aproximaciones. La primera utiliza un modelo VAR estructural para hacer pronósticos dentro de muestra. Los resultados sugieren que los precios actualmente observados no están desalineados si dentro de los determinantes fundamentales de los mismos seincluye el precio del suelo. Para la segunda aproximación se construyó un modelo estructural de oferta y demanda de vivienda. Los resultados de este modelo son coherentes con los del modelo VAR y sugieren que cualquier des-alineamiento del precio de la vivienda respecto de sus "fundamentales" se asocia con niveles históricamente altos del precio del suelo.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/220
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Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 010716.

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Length: 65
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000124:010716
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