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Implicaciones de política del Acuerdo de París en la planeación del sistema eléctrico de Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Germán ROMERO
  • Andrés ALVAREZ-ESPINOSA
  • Santiago ARANGO-ARAMBURO
  • Juan Pablo VALLEJO
  • Leidy RIVEROS
  • Sioux MELO
  • Andrés PINCHAO
  • Carolina DIAZ; Silvia CALDERON

Abstract

Este documento analiza la incidencia de la política climática internacional en la planeación y el desarrollo del sistema eléctrico de Colombia. Particularmente, estudia las implicaciones que tendría el cumplimiento de las contribuciones nacionalmente determinadas (NDC) presentadas en el Acuerdo de Paris sobre el Sistema Interconectado Nacional. Para lograrlo, este documento se apoyó de las modelaciones realizadas por Arango-Aramburo, et al., (2018), quienes identificaron posibles trayectorias de adaptación del sector eléctrico colombiano, considerando que los escenarios de cambio climático podrían alterar los aportes hídricos a las centrales hidroeléctricas. Los resultados muestran que, ante el incumplimiento del Acuerdo de París, se produciría una disminución en la disponibilidad de generación hidroeléctrica que conduciría a la puesta en marcha de estrategias de adaptación del sistema eléctrico basadas en el uso de combustibles fósiles. En contraste, en el escenario que se implemente el Acuerdo, con su nivel actual de ambición, la disminución en la disponibilidad hídrica en el largo plazo sería menor, y las alternativas de adaptación se dirigirían a emplear energéticos convencionales –carbón, gas– con mecanismo de captura o a diversificar las fuentes de energía hacia las renovables, usando tecnologías como la solar y la eólica.

Suggested Citation

  • Germán ROMERO & Andrés ALVAREZ-ESPINOSA & Santiago ARANGO-ARAMBURO & Juan Pablo VALLEJO & Leidy RIVEROS & Sioux MELO & Andrés PINCHAO & Carolina DIAZ; Silvia CALDERON, 2018. "Implicaciones de política del Acuerdo de París en la planeación del sistema eléctrico de Colombia," Archivos de Economía 16835, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:016835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambio climático; Acuerdo de París; hidroeléctricas; energías renovables; TIAM-ECN; GCAM; Phoenix; MEG4C;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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