IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Country risk ratings and financial crises 1995 - 2001: a survival analysis


  • Leonardo Bonilla


  • Andrés Felipe García


  • Monica Roa



Financial system´s health is a signal of economic growth therefore it is a key indicator toinvestors. As a consequence, one of the main purposes of policymakers is to keep itsstability as well as protect it from foreign activity. Both financial and economic activity ingeneral are susceptible of crises, as soon as this happen a country may face default risk,which can be measured with long term debt risk rating of countries. Through this variablewe propose the use the survival analysis methodology, to analyze falls rating duration andcapability of macroeconomic variables to predict that event. From the analysis, we pointout important differences between developed and emerging economies, with variableswhich stand out exchange risk and economies indebtedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Bonilla & Andrés Felipe García & Monica Roa, 2008. "Country risk ratings and financial crises 1995 - 2001: a survival analysis," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004580, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004580

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David Colander, 2005. "The Making of an Economist Redux," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 175-198, Winter.
    2. Bramoullé, Yann & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2010. "Research cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1890-1920, September.
    3. Currie, Lauchlin, 1986. "Sources of growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 541-547, April.
    4. David Colander, 2000. "New Millennium Economics: How Did It Get This Way, and What Way Is It?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 121-132, Winter.
    5. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    6. Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
    7. David Colander & Hugo Nopo Key Words: Latin American economics, global economics, political economy, graduate training, Latin America, applied economics, 2007. "The Making of a Latin American Global Economist," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0705, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    financial crises; financial risk; foreign debt; survival models.;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:004580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.