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Mercado Actual de la Gasolina y del ACPM en Colombia e Inflación

Author

Listed:
  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

  • Aaron Garavito

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se implementan diferentes metodologías de combinación de pronósticos para la inflación colombiana durante el período trimestral comprendido entre 1999:I y 2003:I I. Los métodos de combinación propuestos permiten modelar cambios estructurales con el objeto de capturar el cambio de nivel de la inflación ocurrido en 1998 y 1999. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la metodología de Castaño y Melo (1998), que no considera cambios estructurales, sigue siendo apropiada para pronósticos de horizontes de 1, 2 y 3 trimestres. Sin embargo, para horizontes mayores las metodologías de combinación que consideran cambios estructurales son las mejores, en el sentido de que tienen el menor error cuadrático medio de predicción.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón & Aaron Garavito, 2004. "Mercado Actual de la Gasolina y del ACPM en Colombia e Inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003202, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schwartz, Gerd & Clements, Benedict, 1999. " Government Subsidies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 119-147, April.
    2. Gerd Schwartz & Réjane Hugounenq & Benedict J. Clements, 1995. "Government Subsidies; Concepts, International Trends, and Reform Options," IMF Working Papers 95/91, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizeth Ramos Oyola & Maria Victoria Cárdenas Londoño & David Tobón Orozco, 2006. "Perspectiva Económica sobre la demanda de combustibles en Antioquia," BORRADORES DEL CIE 004187, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11889, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estructura de Mercado;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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