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El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva Estimación

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio A. Hernández

    ()

  • Munir A. Jalil B.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fluctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo 1,53% -1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fluctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir A. Jalil B. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2005. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva Estimación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002478, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamaño óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
    2. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008297, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    3. Christian Volpe Martincus & Sandra Milena Gómez, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9292, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003814, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Christian Volpe Martincus & Sandra Milena Gómez, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2498, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fluctuaciones;

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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