IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000091/004355.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dinámica de la producción industrial e importación de bienes de capital y materias primas: relaciones de largo plazo y ajuste dinámico

Author

Listed:
  • Álvaro Hernando Chávez Castro

Abstract

El presente documento se propone estimar y analizar la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre la producción industrial y la importación de bienes de capital y materias primas para el período enero de 1993 - abril de 2005, que resulta útil para monitorear la dinámica industrial en el corto plazo y las complementariedades que pueden existir entre los factores productivos del mercado interno con el externo. Para tal efecto, se desarrolla un análisis econométrico de la metodología de cointegración con componentes estacionales aplicado a las variables índice de producción real (IPR), importación de bienes de capital e importación de materias primas de la industria colombiana. A partir de un modelo de cointegración estacional se evidencia empíricamente la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre estas variables durante el período analizado. Adicionalmente, se utiliza el modelo estimado para realizar ejercicios de impulso-respuesta para analizar la trayectoria futura de las variables de interés cuando son afectadas por choques exógenos en el tiempo.*****************************************************************************************************************The present document intends estimating and to analyze the existence of a long term relationship between the industrial production and the import of capital goods and raw materials for the period January of 1993 - April of 2005, that is useful for monitoring the industrial dynamics in the short and long term and the complementarities that can exist among the productive factors of the internal market with the external one. In order to reach this objective, it is developed an econometric analysis of the Co-Integration methodology with seasonal components applied to the index of real production (IPR), import of capital goods and import of raw materials for the Colombian industry. Starting from a model of seasonal Co-Integration it is empiric evidenced the existence of a long run relationship among these variables during the analyzed period. Additionally, the dear pattern is used to carry out impulse - response exercises to analyze the future trajectory of the variables when they are affected by exogenous crashes during the time.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Hernando Chávez Castro, 2005. "Dinámica de la producción industrial e importación de bienes de capital y materias primas: relaciones de largo plazo y ajuste dinámico," Borradores de Investigación 4355, Universidad del Rosario.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000091:004355
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repository.urosario.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10336/10927/4355.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegración estacional; raíz estacional; dinámica industrial; corrección del error; bienes de capital; materias primas.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000091:004355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.