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Les dépenses en santé du gouvernement du Québec, 2013-2030 : projections et déterminants


  • Nicholas-James Clavet
  • Jean-Yves Duclos
  • Bernard Fortin
  • Steeve Marchand
  • Pierre-Carl Michaud


Les données de l'Institut canadien d'information en santé (ICIS) et le modèle de micro-simulation dynamique de SIMUL permettent à la fois de projeter les dépenses en santé du Québec jusqu'en 2030 et d'en évaluer l'importance par rapport au PIB et aux revenus de l'État. Un scénario plausible prévoit que les dépenses publiques en santé augmenteront de 31,3 G$ à 61,1 G$ de 2013 à 2030, passant de 8,4 % à 13,5 % du PIB et de 42,9 % à 68,9 % des revenus totaux du gouvernement du Québec. De cette croissance de 29,8 milliards des dépenses publiques en santé, environ 12,3 G$ proviendra des effets du vieillissement de la population, 3,8 G$ sera dû à l'accroissement de la population par l'effet de l'immigration, et 18,2 G$ proviendra de la croissance des coûts structurels des soins de santé. Pour maintenir constante la part des dépenses en santé, il faudrait sous ce scénario augmenter de 60 % tous les impôts et toutes les taxes du gouvernement du Québec et ce, tout en supposant que l'assiette fiscale n'en soit pas affectée.

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  • Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Bernard Fortin & Steeve Marchand & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2013. "Les dépenses en santé du gouvernement du Québec, 2013-2030 : projections et déterminants," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-45, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-45

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Yves DUCLOS & Bouba HOUSSEINI, 2015. "Quality, Quantity and Duration of Lives," Working Papers P118, FERDI.
    2. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck, 2015. "Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038," CSLS Research Reports 2015-08, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    3. Jean-Yves Duclos & Bouba Housseini, 2015. "Quality, Quantity and Duration of Lives," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-12, CIRANO.
    4. Jean-Yves Duclos & Bouba Housseini, 2015. "Does Quality, Quantity and Duration of Lives," Cahiers de recherche 1501, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    5. Contandriopoulos, Damien & Brousselle, Astrid & Breton, Mylaine & Sangster-Gormley, Esther & Kilpatrick, Kelley & Dubois, Carl-Ardy & Brault, Isabelle & Perroux, Mélanie, 2016. "Nurse practitioners, canaries in the mine of primary care reform," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(6), pages 682-689.
    6. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck, 2015. "The Role of Productivity in Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections for the Canadian Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 29, pages 3-17, Fall.

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    ; santé; changements démographiques; vieillissement; finances publiques;

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