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Analyse critique des méthodes et instruments actuels de mesure de la prévision de l'offre et de la demande de main-d'oeuvre hautement qualifiée

  • Marcel Boyer
  • Véronique Le Gallo
  • Claude Montmarquette

In this report, we look at a representative sample of studies on skills shortage in five sectors (Aerospace, Automobile, Biotechnologies, Environment Technologies and Information & Telecommunication Technologies) in order to better understand the interactions between skilled labour demand and skilled labour supply in these fields. We carry out a critical review of the methods and instruments currently being used to monitor the supply and demand of highly qualified personnel, particularly in these five industry sectors. We show that the vast majority of the studies and surveys reviewed are methodologically unsound; the more common problems being biased sampling, inadequate sample size and the exclusion of several key factors from the survey questionnaire or analysis. We end with a few recommendations. À partir d'un échantillon représentatif d'études portant sur l'offre et la demande de personnel hautement qualifié dans cinq secteurs spécifiques (l'aérospatiale, l'automobile, les biotechnologies, les technologies de l'environnement et les technologies de l'information et des télécommunications), nous faisons un examen critique des méthodes et des outils utilisés. Le principal critère que nous utilisons pour juger ces études est l'analyse par les auteurs des principaux signaux de pénurie, c'est-à-dire la présence d'une rente économique pour certaines catégories d'employés, d'une augmentation subite des salaires, d'une variation dans le taux de roulement de la main-d'oeuvre, d'un taux de chômage particulièrement bas pour certaines qualifications, de programmes exceptionnels de formation au sein des entreprises et finalement d'une structure du marché du travail susceptible d'abriter la présence d'un oligopsone. Ensuite, nous tentons de faire le bilan des connaissances et des lacunes à combler quant au fonctionnement des institutions et autres mécanismes sous-jacents à cette offre de travail particulière, tout en tenant compte du phénomène de l'exode de cerveaux. Enfin, nous élaborons un ensemble de suggestions et de recommandations quant aux améliorations qu'il serait souhaitable d'apporter aux pratiques actuelles de mesure de pénuries de main-d'oeuvre et quant aux rôles et responsabilités que les différents intervenants devraient assumer.

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File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/1999RP-13.pdf
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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Project Reports with number 1999rp-13.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:1999rp-13
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