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Time-Varying Risk Premia in Large International Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ines Chaieb

    (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Hugues Langlois

    (HEC Paris)

  • O. Scaillet

    (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We use an estimation methodology tailored for large unbalanced panels of individual stock returns to address key economic questions about the factor structure, pricing performance of factor models, and time-variations in factor risk premia in international equity markets. We estimate factor models with time-varying factor exposures and risk premia at the individual stock level using 62,320 stocks in 46 countries over the 1985-2018 period. We consider market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and investment factors aggregated at the country, regional, and world level. We find that adding an excess country market factor to world or regional factors is sufficient to capture the factor structure for both developed and emerging markets. We do not reject asset pricing restriction tests for multifactor models in 74% to 91% of countries. Value and momentum premia show more variability over time and across countries than profitability and investment premia. The excess country market premium is statistically significant in many developed and emerging markets but economically larger in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ines Chaieb & Hugues Langlois & O. Scaillet, 2018. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in Large International Equity Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-04, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1804
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Umlandt, 2020. "Likelihood-based Dynamic Asset Pricing: Learning Time-varying Risk Premia from Cross-Sectional Models," Working Paper Series 2020-06, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    2. Likai Chen & Ekaterina Smetanina & Wei Biao Wu, 2022. "Estimation of nonstationary nonparametric regression model with multiplicative structure [Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: A continuous-time approach]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 176-214.
    3. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2020. "Climate Sin Stocks: Stock Price Reactions to Global Climate Strikes," Working Papers 2020-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The Rising Interconnectedness of the Insurance Sector," Working papers 857, Banque de France.
    5. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 144-161.
    6. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2018. "Betas V characteristics: Do stock characteristics enhance the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 114-129.
    7. Diaz-Ruiz, Polux & Herrerias, Renata & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2020. "Anomalies in emerging markets: The case of Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Oldham, Matthew, 2020. "Quantifying the concerns of Dimon and Buffett with data and computation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    large panel; approximate factor model; risk premium; international asset pricing; market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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