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Momentum Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Kent D. Daniel

    (Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Tobias J. Moskowitz

    (Yale University, Yale SOM; AQR Capital; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

Abstract

Across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies have historically generated high Sharpe ratios and strong positive alphas relative to standard asset pricing models. However, the returns to momentum strategies are negatively skewed: they experience infrequent but strong and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in what we term “panic” states – following market declines and when market volatility is high, and are contemporaneous with market “rebounds.” We show that the low exante expected returns in panic states result from a conditionally high premium attached to the option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of each momentum strategy’s mean and variance generates an unconditional Sharpe ratio approximately double that of the static momentum strategy. Further, we show that momentum returns in panic states are correlated with, but not explained by, volatility risk. These results are robust across eight different markets and asset classes and multiple time periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Kent D. Daniel & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2013. "Momentum Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-61, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1361
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    Cited by:

    1. Moorman, Theodore, 2014. "An empirical investigation of methods to reduce transaction costs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 230-246.
    2. Goetzmann, William N. & Huang, Simon, 2018. "Momentum in Imperial Russia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 579-591.
    3. Julián R. Siri & Juan A. Serur & José P. Dapena, 2017. "Testing momentum effectfor the US market: From equity to option strategies," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 621, Universidad del CEMA.
    4. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.

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