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Semi-Structural Forecasting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Arroyo Marioli
  • Francisco Bullano
  • Jorge Fornero
  • Roberto Zúñiga

Abstract

The semi-structural gap forecasting (MSEP) model is the new gap model used by the Central Bank of Chile to forecast key macroeconomics variables. This document provides the technical details of this model including equations, estimated parameters and transmission mechanisms. The model has been improved relative to its initial version along several dimensions: (i) The parameters have been estimated with Bayesian methods; (ii) it separates core inflation into tradable and non-tradable inflation, linking each component to fundamental drivers; (iii) it explicitly specifies the empirical relationships between terms of trade and real exchange rate. We found that for a typical monetary policy shocks there are similar effects in comparison with the former MEP model.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Arroyo Marioli & Francisco Bullano & Jorge Fornero & Roberto Zúñiga, 2020. "Semi-Structural Forecasting Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 866, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:866
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_866.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Anton Grui, 2020. "Uncovered interest parity with foreign exchange interventions under exchange rate peg and inflation targeting: The case of Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 14-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Francisco Arroyo Marioli & Juan Sebastián Becerra & Matías Solorza, 2021. "The Credit Channel Through the Lens of a Semi- Structural Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 911, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Jorge Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2020. "Back testing fan charts of activity and inflation: the Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 881, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Arroyo Marioli, Francisco & Becerra, Juan Sebastián & Solorza, Matías, 2022. "The credit channel in chile through the lens of a semi-structural model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(2).

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