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How Much Will Health Coverage Cost? Future Health Spending Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico - Working Paper 382

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  • Amanda Glassman and Juan Ignacio Zoloa

Abstract

As Latin American countries seek to expand the coverage and benefits provided by their health systems under a global drive for universal health coverage (UHC), decisions taken today – whether by government or individuals – will have an impact tomorrow on public spending requirements. To understand the implications of these decisions and define needed policy reforms, this paper calculates long-term projections for public spending on health in three countries, analyzing different scenarios related to population, risk factors, labor market participation, and technological growth. In addition, the paper simulates the effects of different policy options and their potential knock-on effects on health expenditure. Without reforms aimed at expanding policies and programs to prevent disease and enhancing the efficiency of health systems, we find that health spending will likely grow considerably in the not-distant future. These projected increases in health spending may not be a critical situation if revenues and productivity of other areas of the economy maintain their historical trends. However, if revenues do not continue to grow, keeping the share of GDP spent on health constant despite growing demand will certainly affect the quality of and access to health services. Long-term fiscal projections are an essential component of planning for sustainable expansions of health coverage in Latin America.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda Glassman and Juan Ignacio Zoloa, 2014. "How Much Will Health Coverage Cost? Future Health Spending Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico - Working Paper 382," Working Papers 382, Center for Global Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:382
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    File URL: http://www.cgdev.org/publication/how-much-will-health-coverage-cost-future-health-spending-scenarios-brazil-chile-and
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandra Macías Sánchez & Héctor Juan Villarreal Páez, 2018. "Sostenibilidad del gasto público: Cobertura y financiamiento de enfermedades crónicas en México. (Public Spending Sustainability: Coverage and Financing of Chronic Diseases in Mexico)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 99-134, May.
    2. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2020. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152 edited by Izquierdo, Alejandro -//- Pessino, Carola -//- Vuletin, Guillermo, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    health financing; Latin America; fiscal projections; fiscal policy; health policy;

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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