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The Impacts of AI at Scale: Evidence from Research Scientists

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  • Zhengyi Yu

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of AI on productivity and inequality by focusing on the introduction of AlphaFold2. This AI algorithm can accurately predict protein structures, which were traditionally characterized by structural biologists through experiments. To capture the impact of AI on structural biologists at scale, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy comparing them to life scientists in other fields. While structural biologists did not change their overall number of publications with the availability of AlphaFold2, they experienced a 10% increase in citations to their new projects, a 4% rise in publications in high-impact journals, and a shift from their original research trajectory. However, the emergence of AI intensifies citation polarization between highly cited and less-cited researchers. Consistent with this growing inequality, highly cited scientists are twice as likely to incorporate AlphaFold2 successfully into their research as their less-cited peers. In addition, AI affects the next generation of researchers: the average years of experience of leading authors in protein structure papers increase after the emergence of AI.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengyi Yu, 2026. "The Impacts of AI at Scale: Evidence from Research Scientists," CESifo Working Paper Series 12462, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12462
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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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