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Political Ideologies, Redistribution and Local (Mis-)Perceptions of Migrant Stocks and Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Langlotz
  • Johannes Matzat
  • Axel Dreher
  • Christopher Parsons

Abstract

Do factual immigration updates shift societal concerns across political ideologies? Conducting an online experiment in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, respondents provided local immigrant stock and flow estimates before being randomized to receive realistic information on stocks or flows, framed as constant or rising. Most respondents overestimate stocks and flows, with asymmetries emerging across ideologies. Information treatments lower redistribution and tax concerns by 5.4 percentage points on average. Immigration attitudes remain unchanged. Liberals overestimate stocks most, responding to stock treatments. Conservatives overstate flows more, responding to flow information. This pattern is consistent with motivated reasoning: identity-linked immigration views are resistant to correction, while redistribution concerns are elastic to facts when information targets the migration dimension most salient to each ideology.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Langlotz & Johannes Matzat & Axel Dreher & Christopher Parsons, 2026. "Political Ideologies, Redistribution and Local (Mis-)Perceptions of Migrant Stocks and Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 12390, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12390
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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