IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cer/papers/wp813.html

The Long-Term Impacts of Bombing Vietnam on Occupations Over Cohorts

Author

Listed:
  • Van Le Thy Ha

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistent effects of Vietnam War (1955–1975) bombing on occupations and incomes of different cohorts in 2018. To do this, I link the US National Archives bombing data to a Vietnamese representative household survey. I employ an instrumental variable approach that leverages rounding thresholds used to target villagelevel airstrikes. The results show that bombing increases the share of post-war young cohorts working in low-skilled occupations by 10 percentage points and reduces their income by over 50% in 2018. The effects are even more pronounced for older cohorts who were directly exposed to the war. I estimate that heavily bombed villages lag approximately 1.3 to 1.6 generations behind in occupational transformation. My analysis indicates that educational accessibility and wartime village governance partially mediate these effects. This paper provides the first evidence that bombing distorts occupational and income structures for the post-war generation, causing bombed villages to lag in structural transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Le Thy Ha, 2026. "The Long-Term Impacts of Bombing Vietnam on Occupations Over Cohorts," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp813, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp813.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Tran, Tuyen Quang & Van Vu, Huong, 2024. "The long-term effects of war on foreign direct investment and economic development: evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    3. Sara Kijewski, 2020. "Life Satisfaction Sixty Years after World War II: the Lasting Impact of War Across Generations," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1253-1284, November.
    4. Singhal, Saurabh, 2019. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Monica Deza & Alvaro Mezza, 2025. "The Intergenerational Effects of the Vietnam Draft on Risky Behaviors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 247-292.
    6. Kien Le & My Nguyen, 2020. "Aerial bombardment and educational attainment," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 361-383, May.
    7. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    8. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Trong-Anh Trinh, 2022. "The Intergenerational Impacts of War: Bombings and Child Labour in Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(11), pages 2290-2306, November.
    9. Christoph Halbmeier & Carsten Schröder, 2025. "The long-term implications of destruction during the Second World War on private wealth in Germany," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 161-235, March.
    10. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    11. Campante, Filipe & Yanagizawa-Drott, David, 2015. "The Intergenerational Transmission of War," Working Paper Series rwp15-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Michael Palmer & Cuong Viet Nguyen & Sophie Mitra & Daniel Mont & Nora Ellen Groce, 2019. "Long-lasting consequences of war on disability," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 56(6), pages 860-875, November.
    13. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2023. "First- and Second-Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 488-531.
    14. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Erdal Tekin & Belgi Turan, 2022. "World War II Blues: The Long–lasting Mental Health Effect of Childhood Trauma," NBER Working Papers 30284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    16. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dieu Anh, Le Nguyen & Thi Thanh Dang, Binh & Hoang, Trung Xuan, 2025. "The long-term impacts of Iran–Iraq war on education and employment outcomes," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Hiroyuki Yamada & TIEN MANH VU, 2025. "The Quiet Lasting Impact of the Vietnam War on Children's Physical Development," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2025-017, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    3. Appau, Samuelson & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "The long-term impact of the Vietnam War on agricultural productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Tran, Tuyen Quang & Van Vu, Huong, 2024. "The long-term effects of war on foreign direct investment and economic development: evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Le, Duong Trung & Pham, Thanh Minh & Polachek, Solomon, 2022. "The long-term health impact of Agent Orange: Evidence from the Vietnam War," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Vesco, Paola & Baliki, Ghassan & Brück, Tilman & Döring, Stefan & Eriksson, Anneli & Fjelde, Hanne & Guha-Sapir, Debarati & Hall, Jonathan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Leis, Maxine R. & Mueller, Hannes & , 2025. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Munyanyi, Musharavati Ephraim & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "Early life shocks and entrepreneurship: Evidence from the Vietnam War," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 506-518.
    8. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    9. Xuan Hoang, Trung, 2024. "The Long-Term and Gender-Equalizing Impacts of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Iraq War in 1980–88 on School Access and Labor Market Performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10691, The World Bank.
    10. Singhal, Saurabh, 2019. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Christoph Eder, 2014. "Missing Men: World War II Casualties and Structural Change," NRN working papers 2014-03, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Korn, Tobias, 2023. "The Persistent Consequences of Civil Conflict: Evidence from a New Measure for Subnational Conflict Exposure," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-711, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Vuong, Vu & Palmer, Michael, 2024. "Love Thy Neighbour? Social Attitudes Towards Persons With Disabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. repec:cam:camjip:2426 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
    16. Khoa Vu & Maria C. Lo Bue, 2019. "Intergenerational mobility of education in Vietnam: Evidence from the Vietnam War," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-67, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Saurabh Singhal, 2018. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Akresh, Richard & Lucchetti, Leonardo & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2012. "Wars and child health: Evidence from the Eritrean–Ethiopian conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 330-340.
    19. Milica Kecmanovic, 2013. "The Short-run Effects of the Croatian War on Education, Employment, and Earnings," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(6), pages 991-1010, December.
    20. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    21. Burhan, Nik Ahmad Sufian & Mohamad, Mohd Rosli & Kurniawan, Yohan & Sidek, Abdul Halim, 2014. "National Intelligence, Basic Human Needs, and Their Effect on Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 77267, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Vasiljevova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiacacz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.