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Predicting the Effect of Adding a Citizenship Question to the 2020 Census

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  • J. David Brown
  • Misty L. Heggeness
  • Suzanne M. Dorinski
  • Lawrence Warren
  • Moises Yi

Abstract

The addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census could affect the self-response rate, a key driver of the cost and quality of a census. We find that citizenship question response patterns in the American Community Survey (ACS) suggest that it is a sensitive question when asked about administrative record noncitizens but not when asked about administrative record citizens. ACS respondents who were administrative record noncitizens in 2017 frequently choose to skip the question or answer that the person is a citizen. We predict the effect on self-response to the entire survey by comparing mail response rates in the 2010 ACS, which included a citizenship question, with those of the 2010 census, which did not have a citizenship question, among households in both surveys. We compare the actual ACS-census difference in response rates for households that may contain noncitizens (more sensitive to the question) with the difference for households containing only U.S. citizens. We estimate that the addition of a citizenship question will have an 8.0 percentage point larger effect on self-response rates in households that may have noncitizens relative to those with only U.S. citizens. Assuming that the citizenship question does not affect unit self-response in all-citizen households and applying the 8.0 percentage point drop to the 28.1 % of housing units potentially having at least one noncitizen would predict an overall 2.2 percentage point drop in self-response in the 2020 census, increasing costs and reducing the quality of the population count.

Suggested Citation

  • J. David Brown & Misty L. Heggeness & Suzanne M. Dorinski & Lawrence Warren & Moises Yi, 2019. "Predicting the Effect of Adding a Citizenship Question to the 2020 Census," Working Papers 19-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:19-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    2. J. David Brown & Misty L. Heggeness & Suzanne M. Dorinski & Lawrence Warren & Moises Yi, 2018. "Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census," Working Papers 18-38, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    4. J. David Brown & Misty L. Heggeness & Suzanne M. Dorinski & Lawrence Warren & Moises Yi, 2018. "Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census," Working Papers 18-38r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Mary Layne & Deborah Wagner & Cynthia Rothhaas, 2014. "Estimating Record Linkage False Match Rate for the Person Identification Validation System," CARRA Working Papers 2014-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhardt, Robert & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2020. "The CPS Citizenship Question and Survey Refusals: Causal and Semi-Causal Evidence Featuring a Two-Stage Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 13350, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Julia Heinzel & Rebecca Heller & Natalie Tawil, 2021. "Estimating the Legal Status of Foreign-Born People: Working Paper 2021-02," Working Papers 57022, Congressional Budget Office.

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