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The Effects of Low-Valued Transactions on the Quality of U.S. International Export Estimates: 1994-1998

Listed author(s):
  • Charles Ian Mead
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    This paper uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) to examine the effects that a growth of low-valued transactions likely has on the quality of export estimates provided in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-990) series. These transactions, valued at less than $2,500, do not legally require the filing of export declarations. As a result, they are often not captured in the administrative records data used to construct FT-990 estimates. By comparing industry-level estimates created from the ASM to related FT-990 estimates, this paper estimates that the undercounting of low-valued transactions in the FT-990 export series increases by roughly $30 billion over the period of 1994-1997. It also finds that regression analysis provides little insight into the undercounting issue as results are primarily driven by industries whose contributions to total manufacturing exports are small.

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    File Function: First version, 2004
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    Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 04-11.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2004
    Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:04-11
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    1. John Haltiwanger & Steven J Davis & Scott Schuh, 1991. "Published Versus Sample Statistics From The ASM: Implications For The LRD," Working Papers 91-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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