Was China¡¯s Inflation in 2004 Led by An Agricultural Price Rise?
The escalation of agricultural prices starting from the end of 2003 raised a growing concern about a new round of inflation in China. This paper assesses the impacts of China¡¯s 2003 agricultural output decline on agricultural prices and inflation with a general equilibrium model calibrated to actual data. The results suggest that China¡¯s 2003 agricultural output decline was not sufficient alone to produce the observed agricultural price increases and inflationary pressure in 2004. This implies there must have been other factors behind the observed escalation of agricultural prices and inflation; a view that is counter to the conventional view that the rise in agricultural prices lead to the 2004 inflation.
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