Televised Election Campaigns and Affective Polarization in the United States

Affective polarization - marked by strong sympathy for one’s own political party and heightened dislike or distrust toward the opposing party - has emerged as a critical concern in the United States. This study examines the relationship between political advertising on television and such partisan animosity in the United States from 2000 to 2020, drawing on data from the Wesleyan Media Project (WMP) and the American National Election Studies (ANES). I document that advertising volume and affective polarization rise in close tandem over time but find little robust evidence of a straightforward causal link. Two-way fixed effects estimates suggest at most a modest positive correlation, driven primarily by decreased sympathy toward the out-group. Results from a quasi-experimental border pair design, however, point to a small negative effect, most pronounced when focusing on settings with relatively low advertising exposure. For now, these findings indicate that televised election campaigns are unlikely to be a primary driver of mass-level affective polarization. The study highlights methodological challenges and underscores the need for thorough research designs when evaluating the impact of political advertising on partisan sentiments among the electorate.