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Uma análise empírica dos determinantes da desindustrialização no caso brasileiro (1996-2008)

Author

Listed:
  • Cristiane Soares

    () (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

  • Anderson Mutter

    (Faculdade de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Ciências Econonômicas (FACE) Universidade Federal de Goiás)

  • José Luis Oreiro

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

Abstract

A literatura recente tem sido pouco conclusiva a respeito dos determinantes do processo de desindustrialização vivenciado pela economia brasileira desde o final da década de 1980. Neste sentido, esse artigo contribui para o debate com uma abordagem econométrica baseada na metodologia desenvolvida por Rowthorn e Ramaswamy (1999). Com base na evidência empírica disponível, testam-se os determinantes diretos e indiretos do processo de desindustrialização. Entre os determinantes diretos destacam-se a formação bruta de capital fixo e o saldo da balança comercial como proporção do PIB. Os testes econométricos mostram que a taxa real de câmbio tem um forte efeito indireto sobre a perda relativa do emprego e do valor adicionado na indústria no período 1996- 2008. Com efeito, a taxa real de câmbio afeta negativamente a participação da indústria no emprego e no valor adicionado devido aos seus efeitos sobre a formação bruta de capital fixo e o saldo da balança comercial. Daqui se segue, portanto, que a manutenção de uma taxa de câmbio sobre-valorizada no período em consideração é uma causa importante da desindustrialização verificada nesse período.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiane Soares & Anderson Mutter & José Luis Oreiro, 2011. "Uma análise empírica dos determinantes da desindustrialização no caso brasileiro (1996-2008)," Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia 361, Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia.
  • Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:361
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    File URL: http://vsites.unb.br/face/eco/textos/didaticos/WP%20361.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desindustrialização; Emprego; Produto; Taxa Real de Câmbio.;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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