IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crescimento com Restrições de Balanço de Pagamentos e Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil a Partir dos Anos Noventa



    () (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)


The economic literature contains extensive discussions on relationship between foreign constraints and economic growth. Since the beginning of the 1990’s one debate concentrates on the nature of macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand in Brazil in an environment of capital flows liberalization. An important analysis on export-led growth hypothesis has followed. The validity of such approach depends on the response of the current account to the policy regime, as well as the impact on investment coming from demand, as indicated by the Verdoorn Law. We contribute to this line of enquiry in two ways. First, we provide an assessment on the Thirlwall Law and introduce some specifications applied, mainly, to developing countries. The reverse causality for the so-called twin deficits is also examined. Our second contribution is to apply time series methods – impulse-response function in vector auto-regression (VAR) and dynamic regressions – to test some assumptions. We argue that Brazil will nor succeed to attain the required demand for sustained growth without gains in international competitiveness and the opening of new markets. The results suggest that favourable interest and exchange rate depend on reductions, to a certain extent, of speculative capital movements, as recommended by a representative number of distinguished scholars and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • FERNANDO DE AQUINO FONSECA NETO & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2004. "Crescimento com Restrições de Balanço de Pagamentos e Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil a Partir dos Anos Noventa," Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia 318, Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia.
  • Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:318

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item


    Foreign constraints; Speculative capital; Demand constraints; Twin deficits; Time series;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luciano Póvoa). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.