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Crescimento com Restrições de Balanço de Pagamentos e Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil a Partir dos Anos Noventa

Author

Listed:
  • FERNANDO DE AQUINO FONSECA NETO

    () (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

Abstract

The economic literature contains extensive discussions on relationship between foreign constraints and economic growth. Since the beginning of the 1990’s one debate concentrates on the nature of macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand in Brazil in an environment of capital flows liberalization. An important analysis on export-led growth hypothesis has followed. The validity of such approach depends on the response of the current account to the policy regime, as well as the impact on investment coming from demand, as indicated by the Verdoorn Law. We contribute to this line of enquiry in two ways. First, we provide an assessment on the Thirlwall Law and introduce some specifications applied, mainly, to developing countries. The reverse causality for the so-called twin deficits is also examined. Our second contribution is to apply time series methods – impulse-response function in vector auto-regression (VAR) and dynamic regressions – to test some assumptions. We argue that Brazil will nor succeed to attain the required demand for sustained growth without gains in international competitiveness and the opening of new markets. The results suggest that favourable interest and exchange rate depend on reductions, to a certain extent, of speculative capital movements, as recommended by a representative number of distinguished scholars and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • FERNANDO DE AQUINO FONSECA NETO & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2004. "Crescimento com Restrições de Balanço de Pagamentos e Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil a Partir dos Anos Noventa," Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia 318, Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia.
  • Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:318
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    File URL: http://vsites.unb.br/face/eco/cpe/TD/318agosto2004JRTeixeira.pdf
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    Keywords

    Foreign constraints; Speculative capital; Demand constraints; Twin deficits; Time series;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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