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International dynamic risk sharing

  • Giuseppe Cavaliere

    ()

  • Luca Fanelli

    ()

  • Attilio Gardini

    ()

In this paper we examine the formal implications of international risk sharing among a set of countries in the presence of market frictions and forward-looking behaviour. We show that if frictions prevent consumption to adjust instantaneously to its optimal long run level, consumption streams in the countries belonging to the risk sharing pool change over time according to a dynamic disequilibrium model which can be nested within an error-correcting vector autoregressive process. Econometric methods for testing the restrictions imposed by the theory at both short and long horizons are proposed and discussed. The empirical analysis of a set of core European countries suggest that consumption data do not seem to contrast neither with the existence of risk sharing against permanent income fluctuations and integrated capital markets, nor with a gradual and interrelated process of adjustment towards the equilibrium. The apparent lack of risk sharing in Europe documented in earlier works might depend not only on the misspecification of the short run dynamics of consumption, but also on the relatively low speed of adjustment toward the equilibrium.

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Paper provided by Department of Statistics, University of Bologna in its series Quaderni di Dipartimento with number 1.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bot:quadip:1
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  1. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-014, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2000. "Dynamic Risk Sharing in the United States and Europe," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1621, Econometric Society.
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  10. Robert Kollmann, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7640, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  12. Koenker, Roger & Machado, Jose A. F., 1999. "GMM inference when the number of moment conditions is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 327-344, December.
  13. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
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  15. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Michael W. Klein, 1998. "Risky Habits: On Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations," NBER Working Papers 6735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Fanelli, Luca & Gardini, Attilio, 2006. "Regional consumption dynamics and risk sharing in Italy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 525-542.
  17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  18. Apte, Prakash & Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman, 2004. "The exchange rate and purchasing power parity: extending the theory and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-571, June.
  19. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Attilio Gardini, 2008. "International dynamic risk sharing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
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  22. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Dynamic adjustment cost models with forward-looking behaviour," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 23-47, 03.
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