IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bos/iedwpr/dp-345.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Air Pollution, Affect, and Forecasting Bias: Evidence from Chinese Financial Analysts

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Dong

    (University of China)

  • Raymond Fisman

    (Boston University)

  • Yongxiang Wang

    (University of Southern California)

  • Nianhang Xu

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

We document a negative relation between air pollution during corporate site visits by investment analysts and subsequent earnings forecasts. After accounting for analyst, weather , and firm characteristics, an extreme worsening of air quality from “good/excellent†to “severely polluted†is associated with a more than 1 percentage point lower profit forecast, relative to realized profits. We explore heterogeneity in the pollution-forecast relation to understand better the underlying mechanism. Pollution only affects forecasts that are announced in the weeks immediately following a visit, indicating that mood likely plays a role, and the effect of pollution is less pronounced when analysts from different brokerages visit on the same date, suggesting a debiasing effect of multiple perspectives. Finally, there is suggestive evidence of adaptability to environmental circumstances – forecasts from analysts based in high pollution cities are relatively unaffected by site visit pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Dong & Raymond Fisman & Yongxiang Wang & Nianhang Xu, 2019. "Air Pollution, Affect, and Forecasting Bias: Evidence from Chinese Financial Analysts," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-345, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.bu.edu/fisman/files/2019/09/Pollution_jfe.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    2. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Alok Kumar & Qin Wang, 2015. "Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 73-111.
    3. Hirshleifer, David & Levi, Yaron & Lourie, Ben & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2019. "Decision fatigue and heuristic analyst forecasts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 83-98.
    4. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    5. Ishii, Joy & Xuan, Yuhai, 2014. "Acquirer-target social ties and merger outcomes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 344-363.
    6. Harrison Hong & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2010. "Competition and Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1683-1725.
    7. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    8. repec:feb:framed:0071 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Michael S. Haigh & John A. List, 2005. "Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 523-534, February.
    10. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    11. Kang, Sh & Obrien, J & Sivaramakrishnan, K, 1994. "Analysts Interim Earnings Forecasts - Evidence On The Forecasting Process," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 103-112.
    12. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    13. Glenn W. Harrison & John A. List, 2008. "Naturally Occurring Markets and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of the Winner's Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 822-843, April.
    14. Qiang Cheng & Fei Du & Xin Wang & Yutao Wang, 2016. "Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1245-1286, December.
    15. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2016. "Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 25-42.
    16. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    17. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    18. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    19. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2011. "Air pollution and stock returns in the US," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 374-383, June.
    20. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    21. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    22. Huyghebaert, Nancy & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Bias in the post-IPO earnings forecasts of affiliated analysts: Evidence from a Chinese natural experiment," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 486-505.
    23. Ed Dehaan & Joshua Madsen & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2017. "Do Weather‐Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 509-550, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chi, Yeguang & He, Jingbin & Ma, Xinru & Wu, Fei, 2023. "Air pollution and institutional investors' valuation bias during initial public offerings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Chen, Xin, 2021. "Lunar eclipses, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1007-1024.
    3. Wu, Qinqin & Chou, Robin K. & Lu, Jing, 2020. "How does air pollution-induced fund-manager mood affect stock markets in China?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Jiawen Luo & Qun Zhang, 2024. "Air pollution, weather factors, and realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 151-217, February.
    7. Guo, Mengmeng & Wei, Mengxin & Huang, Lin, 2022. "Does air pollution influence investor trading behavior? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Ding, Xiaoya & Guo, Mengmeng & Yang, Tao, 2021. "Air pollution, local bias, and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    9. Xu, Alan, 2022. "Air pollution and mediation effects in stock market, longitudinal evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    11. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2018. "Air pollution, stock returns, and trading activities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-365.
    12. Wu, Qinin & Lu, Jing, 2020. "Air pollution, individual investors, and stock pricing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 267-287.
    13. Li, Jennifer (Jie) & Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Hong & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "Air pollution, behavioral bias, and the disposition effect in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 641-673.
    14. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    15. Wang, He-tong & Qi, Shao-zhou & Li, Kai, 2023. "Impact of risk-taking on enterprise value under extreme temperature: From the perspectives of external and internal governance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Matthew Muntifering, 2021. "Air pollution, investor sentiment and excessive returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 110-119, March.
    17. Han, Lin & Cheng, Xiaoke & Chan, Kam C. & Gao, Shenghao, 2022. "Does air pollution affect seasoned equity offering pricing? Evidence from investor bids," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    18. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    19. Sun, Qian & Cheng, Xiaoke & Gao, Shenghao & Chen, Tao & Liu, Jia, 2023. "Sunshine-induced mood and SEO pricing: Evidence from detailed investor bids in SEO auctions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Autore, Don M. & Jiang, Danling, 2019. "The preholiday corporate announcement effect," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 61-82.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pollution; Forecasting bias; Investment analysts; Adaptation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Program Coordinator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decbuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.