Demographic Structural Change in North Korea and Its Implications (in Korean)

The demographic structure of North Korea is one of the most important variables that could influence economic growth or unification cost in the processes of transition and integration with South Korea. This paper examines changes in the demographic structure of North Korea based on the World Population Prospects of the UN: it compares demographic structures between an integrated Korea and the reunified Germany, as well as those between North Korea, China and Vietnam. Based on these comparisons, we could draw some important implications for demographic issues during the transition of North Korea and after reunification. In China and Vietnam, the first demographic dividend effect caused by a sharp decline in the dependency ratio has been pronounced in the process of economic growth since the reform and opening-up. However, North Korea, which had already completed its demographic transition before the 1990s, is unlikely to enjoy the demographic dividend effect in the future even if it attempts to embark on reform and opening-up. Meanwhile, the population integration between North Korea, whose the youth population ratio and total fertility rate (TFR) are higher, and South Korea can delay entering into an aged society by 4 years. It is also expected to make the share of the working-age population increase by up to 4.3%p by 2065, compared to that of South Korea. However, the speed of population aging of an integrated Korea is expected to be faster than that of the reunified germany.