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En effisient handlingsregel for bruk av petroleumsinntekter

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Denne artikkelen undersøker hvor mye vi bør bruke av petroleumsinntektene hvis vi samtidig skal minimere kostnadene ved å bruke dem. Slike kostnader forbindes med sektoromstillinger som ikke kan opprettholdes og må reverseres for unngå intern og ekstern ubalanse i økonomien. Realvalutakursen spiller en sentral rolle når det gjelder å frembringe slike sektoromstillinger. Den reflekterer blant annet nivået på bruken av petroluemsinntektene. Den konsumraten for petroleumsinntekter som fører til minst svingninger i realvalutakursen og sektorsammensetningen, kaller vi “effisient konsumrate”. Det vises at den effisiente konsumraten blir lik realavkastningen på petroleumsformuen minus den inntektsbestemte importveksten. Vi tallfester denne raten til 1 % av den samlede petroleumsformuen. Vi finner også at den offisielle handlingsregelen tilsier større bruk av petroleumsinntekter enn det som foreskrives av den effisiente konsumraten.

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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2004/17.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 18 Nov 2004
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2004_17
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