The Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Rebalancing in a Heterogeneous-Agent Model

This paper examines the long-run macroeconomic effects of a Fiscal Rebalancing reform that shifts taxation from payroll to consumption under a balanced-budget constraint. Using a heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to French data, we compare pre- and post-reform steady states. The reform increases both aggregate labor and capital, with a stronger impact on capital in the heterogeneous-agent model than in its representative-agent counterpart. It also heightens wealth inequality, as a disproportionate share of the increase in aggregate wealth accrues to wealthier households. A welfare analysis that accounts for the transition dynamics reveals a positive average welfare effect overall, although high-wealth and, separately, low-productivity households experience welfare losses. The results are robust across alternative calibrations and model specifications.