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Parametric estimation for the standard and the geometric telegraph process observed at discrete times

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Iacus

    (Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, University of Milan, IT)

  • Alessandro De Gregorio

    (Department of Statistics, University of Padova)

Abstract

The telegraph process $X(t)$, $t>0$, (Goldstein, 1951) and the geometric telegraph process $S(t) = s_0 \exp\{(\mu -\frac12\sigma^2)t + \sigma X(t)\}$ with $\mu$ a known constant and $\sigma>0$ a parameter are supposed to be observed at $n+1$ equidistant time points $t_i=i\Delta_n,i=0,1,\ldots, n$. For both models $\lambda$, the underlying rate of the Poisson process, is a parameter to be estimated. In the geometric case, also $\sigma>0$ has to be estimated. We propose different estimators of the parameters and we investigate their performance under the high frequency asymptotics, i.e. $\Delta_n \to 0$, $n\Delta = T 0$ fixed. The process $X(t)$ in non markovian, non stationary and not ergodic thus we use approximation arguments to derive estimators. Given the complexity of the equations involved only estimators on the first model can be studied analytically. Therefore, we run an extensive Monte Carlo analysis to study the performance of the proposed estimators also for small sample size $n$.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Iacus & Alessandro De Gregorio, 2006. "Parametric estimation for the standard and the geometric telegraph process observed at discrete times," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1033, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:bep:unimip:unimi-1033
    Note: oai:cdlib1:unimi-1033
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. De Gregorio, Alessandro, 2009. "Parametric estimation for planar random flights," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(20), pages 2193-2199, October.
    3. V. Pozdnyakov & L. M. Elbroch & C. Hu & T. Meyer & J. Yan, 2020. "On Estimation for Brownian Motion Governed by Telegraph Process with Multiple Off States," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1275-1291, September.
    4. Surya Teja Eada & Vladimir Pozdnyakov & Jun Yan, 2025. "Discretely observed Brownian motion governed by telegraph signal process: Estimation and application to finance," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Thomas M. Michelitsch & Federico Polito & Alejandro P. Riascos, 2023. "Semi-Markovian Discrete-Time Telegraph Process with Generalized Sibuya Waiting Times," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Cinque, Fabrizio, 2022. "A note on the conditional probabilities of the telegraph process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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