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Alivios de precios en la pandemia del Covid-19: ejercicio sobre el impacto en la inflación de Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Edgar Caicedo-García
  • Ramón Hernández-Ortega
  • Nicolás Martínez-Cortés

Abstract

Este documento ofrece un ejercicio que cuantifica el máximo impacto posible, en términos contables, que tendrían sobre el nivel del IPC algunos alivios de precios decretados por el Gobierno de Colombia al inicio de la pandemia del Covid-19. Dicho impacto no necesariamente coincidiría con las cifras oficiales del IPC debido a la presencia de múltiples factores que también inciden sobre estos precios y a algunos supuestos realizados. La mayoría de estos alivios se encuentran vigentes y expirarán entre agosto de este año y finales del año 2022. El ejercicio implica estimar el nivel de impuestos indirectos cobrados en la canasta del consumidor y supone que los alivios contemplados se transmiten plenamente al IPC. Por otro lado, esta misma metodología se aplica para intentar cuantificar el efecto de los días sin IVA. Los resultados sugieren que los alivios contemplados tienen un efecto máximo cercano al 1,9% sobre el nivel del IPC total y que el impacto inflacionario del día sin IVA es pequeño, bajo el supuesto de que la toma de precios por parte del DANE es de alta frecuencia. **** ABSTRACT: This document offers an exercise that quantifies on the Colombia CPI the máximum possible impact in accounting terms of some price reliefs decreed by the national government. This impact would not necessarily coincide with the official CPI figures, due to the presence of multiple factors that also affect these prices and some assumptions. Most of these reliefs will expire between August of 2020 and the end of 2022. The exercise involves approximations of the tax level of the consumer basket and assumes that the reliefs are fully transmitted to the CPI. On the other hand, this same methodology was applied to quantify the effect of “day without VAT” events. The results suggest that the reliefs sum a máximum effect close to 1,9% on the total CPI. On the other hand, we found that the influence of the day without VAT is small, under the assumption that DANE collects prices with high frequency in the month.

Suggested Citation

  • Edgar Caicedo-García & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, 2021. "Alivios de precios en la pandemia del Covid-19: ejercicio sobre el impacto en la inflación de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1172, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1172
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1172
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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