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Results and problems of five years of incomes policy: an initial quantitative evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Fabiani

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alberto Locarno

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Gianpaolo Oneto

    () (Istat)

  • Paolo Sestito

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

What role was played by the incomes policy launched in 1992-93? Part of a new “culture of stability” or factor distorting the adjustment process? This paper makes an initial evaluation of the effects of the reform of the wage-bargaining system on the link between wages and prices, on the costs of disinflation and on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). The lesser reactivity of nominal wages appears to have reduced the overall magnitude of the response of the price system to nominal shocks, whose effects were prolonged, with wider fluctuations in real wages. Counterfactual simulations confirm the importance of incomes policy in curbing the inflationary pressures: in its absence, inflation would have been between 2 and 3 percentage points higher in 1996. Achieving the inflation rates that were reached in the period in question through monetary policy action alone would have been much costlier and would have imperiled the process of fiscal consolidation. The effects on the determinants of the NAIRU appear less significant instead, although in assessing this result account it is necessary to consider that the new bargaining system has yet to find a definitive configuration.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Locarno & Gianpaolo Oneto & Paolo Sestito, 1998. "Results and problems of five years of incomes policy: an initial quantitative evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 329, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_329_98
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/1998/1998-0329/tema_329_98.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco D'Amuri & Cristina Giorgiantonio, 2014. "Diffusion and outlook of firm-level bargaining in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 221, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Alfonso Rosolia, 2015. "On the response of Italian wages to the unemployment rate," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 287, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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