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Short-term inflation indicators

Author

Listed:
  • María de los Llanos Matea

    (Banco de España)

  • Ana Valentina Regil

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

To select the best leading indicators for predicting short-term inflation, an extensive number of economic variables is analysed at quarterly level on the basis of their past correlation with the consumer price index (CPI) and its services and non-energy processed goods component (IPSEBENE). Stationary series are used whose orders of integration have previously been tested by means of seasonal unit root tests.

Suggested Citation

  • María de los Llanos Matea & Ana Valentina Regil, 1996. "Short-term inflation indicators," Working Papers 9621, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:9621
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    leading indicator; seasonal unit roots; prediction of inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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