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Análisis de la dinámica reciente de la inflación en españa. Un enfoque basado en el modelo de Blanchard y Bernanke (2023)

Author

Listed:
  • Morteza Ghomi

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • José Manuel Montero

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

El reciente episodio inflacionista responde a la conjunción de varias perturbaciones cercanas en el tiempo. En este documento utilizamos el modelo de Blanchard y Bernanke (2023) como marco analítico para evaluar el peso relativo de los distintos factores explicativos en diferentes etapas de este episodio. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, se pueden extraer dos conclusiones principales. En primer lugar, las perturbaciones por el lado de la oferta (energía, alimentos, cuellos de botella) han tenido un papel fundamental en la evolución reciente de la inflación en la economía española. En segundo lugar, una vez absorbidas las mencionadas perturbaciones de oferta, el tensionamiento del mercado laboral estaría ganando un mayor peso relativo como factor determinante de la inflación, con un impacto que podría exhibir un mayor grado de persistencia en el futuro.

Suggested Citation

  • Morteza Ghomi & Samuel Hurtado & José Manuel Montero, 2024. "Análisis de la dinámica reciente de la inflación en españa. Un enfoque basado en el modelo de Blanchard y Bernanke (2023)," Occasional Papers 2404, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:2404
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/36093
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflación; salarios; expectativas de inflación; mercado de trabajo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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