Previsión de la carga de intereses de las Administraciones Públicas

This document presents a tool, available at the Banco de España, for forecasting General government interest payments in Spain. Contrary to some models, which are very detailed and take into account the specific characteristics and dates of every individual debt instrument issued by the government, the tool presented here aggregates as much as possible, for simplicity reasons, but without losing forecasting capacity, as it is shown in the document. Also, the explanatory variables and the accounting approach used are chosen to be consistent with the regular macroeconomic projection exercises of the Banco de España, of which they are part.