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Potential Output and the Output Gap Estimation for Argentina: Approximations from a Multivariate Filter and the Production Function Method

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel Krysa

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Luis Lanteri

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

In this work, three methodologies are presented and implemented to estimate the potential output and the output gap in Argentina, in the period 1993Q1-2018Q1. The first rests on the estimation, by Bayesian techniques, of a multivariate semi-structural filter based on the study by Benes et al. (2010). Second, the calculation is performed using univariate filters: the Hodrick Prescott and two versions of the Band Pass in the frequency domain (Baxter-King and Christiano Fitzgerald). The estimates indicated emphasize the short-term cyclical behavior of the product, consistent with a stable inflation rate. Finally, an estimation with the production function method is presented, a perspective that is more appropriate for the analysis of the use of productive factors in a long-term horizon. With this last objective, a growth accounting exercise is practiced. The results of the different methodologies for estimating the potential output show robustness among themselves and allow to account for some stylized facts from the economic literature on the period of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Krysa & Luis Lanteri, 2018. "Potential Output and the Output Gap Estimation for Argentina: Approximations from a Multivariate Filter and the Production Function Method," BCRA Working Paper Series 201880, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201880
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; output gap; multivariate filter; production function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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