IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcr/wpaper/201257.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Bastourre

    () (Central Bank of Argentina, Universidad Nacional de La Plata)

  • Jorge Carrera

    () (Central Bank of Argentina, Universidad Nacional de La Plata)

  • Javier Ibarlucia

    () (Central Bank of Argentina, Universidad Nacional de La Plata)

  • Mariano Sardi

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

This paper presents and evaluates the hypothesis that emerging countries specialized in commodity production are prone to experience non orthogonal commercial and financial shocks. Specifically, we investigate a set of global macroeconomic variables that, in principle, could simultaneously determine in opposite direction commodity prices and bonds spreads in commodity-exporting emerging economies. Employing common factors techniques and pairwise correlation analysis we find a strong negative correlation between commodity prices and emerging market spreads. Moreover, the empirical FAVAR (Factor Augmented VAR) model developed to test our main hypothesis confirms that this negative association pattern is not only explained by the fact that commodity prices are one of the most relevant fundamentals of bond spreads of commodity exporters. In particular, we find that reductions in international interest rates and global risk appetite; rises in quantitative global liquidity measures and equity returns; and US dollar depreciations, tend to diminish spreads of emerging economies and strengthen commodity prices at the same time. These results are relevant in order to improve our knowledge regarding the reasons behind some typical characteristics of emerging commodity producers, such as their tendency to experience high levels of macroeconomic volatility and procyclicality, or their propensity to be affected from exchange rate overshooting, external crisis and sudden stops. Concerning policy lessons, a mayor conclusion is the complexity of the task of disentangle challenges coming from financial openness and structural considerations in emerging economies, such as the lack of diversification of the productive structure or the difficulties of a grow strategy solely based on natural recourses. It would be profitable to internalize the connection between these two key variables in formulating and conducting economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia & Mariano Sardi, 2012. "Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices," BCRA Working Paper Series 201257, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP_57_2012i.pdf
    File Function: English version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/WP_57_2012e.pdf
    File Function: versión en Español
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6707, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    5. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    6. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 651-670.
    7. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March.
    8. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    9. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    11. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    12. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2010. "Commodity Prices: Structural Factors, Financial Markets and Non-Linear Dynamics," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 06 edited by Jorge Carrera, December.
    13. Cevik, Serhan & Saadi Sedik, Tahsin, 2014. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 34-50, May.
    14. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    15. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    16. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Etienne B Yehoue & Gilles J. Dufrénot, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment; A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    20. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    22. Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions," Macroeconomics 9610002, EconWPA.
    23. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis," Working Paper Series 1072, European Central Bank.
    26. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    27. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "Determinants of capital inflows into Asia: The relevance of contagion effects as push factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-284, September.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    29. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity; Availability of Funds for Safe and Risky Assets," IMF Working Papers 11/136, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andres Fernandez & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster; Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 15/280, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Thomas Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro, 2017. "Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; emerging economies; financial flows; market spreads;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bcraaar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.